5
Feb
Direct From the Front Line
The first few weeks of property market activity in 2009 suggests
that while the economic picture may be still grave, local market
activity in the housing sector is far from moribund.
The shiny chrome pinball of bank failure still crashes around
the machine, ringing up eye-watering losses as it goes.
But each piece of negative news makes one fewer bad headline in
the future. This downturn will end, just as certainly as the Great
Depression of the 1920s ended. Already, in 2009, there are signs of
increased activity in the property market. These are not
‘green shoots’ - heaven forbid one should announce that
just now! But there are signs that people who have to move are
getting on with it. These signs also show that many sellers have
brought their hot price expectations more into line with cold
reality.
It is never easy for anyone to come to terms with a loss of some
equity in their home – especially those who have never had to
come to terms with this in the past. But before long the desire to
move on in life overcomes even the most steadfast seller when faced
with the proposition that getting on is better than holding on
– especially when what they are holding on to might still be
sinking. It’s rather like asking comfortable passengers on
the Titanic, before it hit the iceberg, if they would like to
freeze in an over-laden lifeboat and then asking them again after
the collision. Same question. Different answer.
We are living through a dramatic piece of economic history that
will be mentioned as much in the future as the Great Depression has
been in the past. Indeed it is probable that the two events will be
forever linked as the classic examples of modern cataclysmic
economic and commercial breakdown.
But those of us living through such shattering events are being
forced to make decisions that few of our grandparents and great
grandparents ever had to make. Mass home ownership, we have all
learnt, can wear two masks – one of comedy and the other of
tragedy.
The media is often two, and sometimes three, months out of step
with property market news. Experts as they may be, news reporters
are not working day-by-day in the front office of a high street
estate agent, and they are often the innocent mouthpieces of
received wisdom. Property statistics and trends do not have the
immediacy of the stock market, they take months to filter through
and then distort the up-to-date truth. Since the New Year estate
agents up and down the country have been describing greatly
increased levels of enquiry and property viewings unseen for over
twelve months.
Nobody can say if these numbers will be sustained or even
increased. Much depends on how quickly that shiny pinball comes to
rest. But meanwhile there are sure signs that the house buying and
selling public are fed up with this recession, they are not
prepared to put their lives on hold while the governments in the UK
or even the US get their policies sorted out, or until the banks
get their houses in order or even until the price correction ends
and property regains its upward momentum.
Buyers are once again filling agents’ offices, checking
online and visiting property. And why shouldn’t they be?
There is great choice, prices have come down dramatically and those
with enough deposit can enjoy the lowest interest rates for over
three hundred years.