8
Jan
Life, Confidence and the Property Market
The start of this fresh year is a good time to reflect on the
turbulent months behind us in the property market,, and to look
ahead.
It is fair to say that we have endured a year of rollercoaster
news and extraordinary financial events, with the banking system
turning cartwheels and the property market suffering one of the
harshest periods of trading for over half a century. Many of us in
the property industry will be relieved that 2008 is over. But what
lies ahead in the future? Some financial commentators argue that it
will take many years for confidence in the property market to
return.
The media seems to be full of ‘expert’ opinions
about how much further property values will drop, when the market
will turn and how long any period of recovery will take. From
newspaper and broadcast journalists to eminent economists, they all
have something to say. Even one or two estate agency research
departments have jumped in with their two-pennyworth. The trouble
is not one of them seems to agree. This is hardly surprising as
none of them is a clairvoyant and none has ever encountered this
sort of crisis before. So, no matter how expert anyone thinks they
are, nobody really knows. With so many people conjecturing
different things (and by the law of averages one of them will
eventually be right) forecasting appears to be a rather fruitless
exercise.
But we local property experts do know a thing or two. We know
what is going on in our particular market place. We know we are
still agreeing sales and, whilst it is fair to say that prices need
to be realistic, buyers are returning to the fray. There has
certainly been an upsurge in activity following dramatic interest
rate cuts, and we think this will increase with further rate cuts
as banks slowly relax their stranglehold on mortgage money. Also,
no matter how eroded confidence is across the property and
financial worlds, people do still leave the family nest, co-habit,
get married, give birth, separate, divorce, get new jobs, lose
their jobs, win the lottery, hit the jackpot and, sadly, die.
Despite low property transaction volumes there is still movement.
There always is.
So now is a good time to look forward, perhaps with just a
little more optimism than in recent months. Low interest rates will
attract buyers, turmoil in financial markets may just turn
investors back to the safety of bricks and mortar, money will need
to be lent to ensure the banking system begins to move again and,
most importantly, life and the property market will go on.